The 2026 NFL offseason is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for several teams as they reevaluate their quarterback positions. But here's where it gets controversial: some franchises might be forced to make tough decisions about their current starters, potentially leading to significant changes in the league's quarterback landscape. And this is the part most people miss: the financial implications of these moves could be just as dramatic as the on-field impact. With the quarterback carousel already spinning—as seen with Joe Flacco's recent team switch—the upcoming season promises to be a defining one for many organizations. As we approach the midway point of the 2025 NFL season, the potential openings for new signal-callers are becoming clearer, especially with four quarterbacks projected in the first round of the 2026 draft. This means teams will be under pressure to clear spots for players they hope will become their next franchise quarterbacks.
Below, we'll explore the situations of 11 NFL starters who could either cede their jobs or face stiff competition in 2026. Some of these quarterbacks are likely on their way out, while others may still retain their roles come next September. We'll delve into their 2025 performances, contract situations, and the factors influencing their future. Let's start with the quarterbacks whose seats are the hottest.
On Their Way Out
Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
Murray's future in Arizona has shifted from settled to uncertain. Despite the Cardinals' 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play in 2023-2024, the team's run game collapse in 2025 has placed too much pressure on the 2019 No. 1 pick. Murray struggled to drive the passing attack, posting a career-high sack rate (9.0%) and a career-low yards per attempt (6.0). After a foot injury in Week 5, Jacoby Brissett took over and seemed to unlock a more efficient offense. The Cardinals have improved from 25th to 12th in points scored per drive since Brissett's takeover, though some of this is due to better field position. Murray's contract, a five-year, $230.5 million deal signed in 2022, complicates his future. Trading or cutting him involves significant financial implications, but the Cardinals' handling of his injury and Brissett's success suggest a potential change is coming.
Geno Smith (Las Vegas Raiders)
Smith's tenure as the Raiders' starter seems unlikely to extend beyond 2025. Despite challenges like injuries to key players and a disappointing offensive scheme under Chip Kelly, Smith hasn't met expectations. His interception rate (4.5%) is the worst in the league, and his Total QBR has declined each season since 2022. The Raiders might look to Kenny Pickett or Aidan O'Connell for competition, but Smith's $18.5 million guaranteed salary for 2026 could keep him as a backup.
Justin Fields (New York Jets)
Fields' time as the Jets' starter appears to be ending. After being benched mid-game, he regained the starting role due to Tyrod Taylor's injury, but his performance remains inconsistent. The Jets, armed with draft picks from recent trades, are likely to prioritize finding a long-term quarterback solution. Fields' best fit in a QB run game-heavy offense limits his appeal as a backup, and the Jets will probably release him to save $10 million.
Potential Retirees
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
Stafford's future is tied to his annual retirement considerations. Despite a stellar 2025 season, his $40 million non-guaranteed salary for 2026 and history of retirement flirtations suggest another offseason of negotiations. The Rams, however, seem committed to keeping him as long as possible.
Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Rodgers' partnership with the Steelers has been mutually beneficial, but his contract ends after 2025. With no guarantees for 2026, the Steelers face a decision: draft a young quarterback or bring back Rodgers, who may seek a similar deal to his current one.
Would Move if They Could
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
Tagovailoa's $54 million guaranteed salary for 2026 makes releasing him unlikely. A trade is more feasible, but his concussion history and declining QBR might deter suitors. The Dolphins could explore a trade, but it would likely require them to eat some of his salary.
Evaluation Time
Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
Young's performance in 2025 hasn't met expectations, with a rising interception rate and league-low yards per attempt. The Panthers must decide on his $25.6 million fifth-year option for 2027, which could determine his future with the team.
Young Guys Facing Competition
J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
McCarthy's early starts have been inconsistent, with poor completion percentages and interception rates. The Vikings should consider bringing in a veteran to compete with him in 2026.
Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons)
Penix has shown promise but lacks consistency. The Falcons will likely end their experiment with Kirk Cousins, leaving Penix as the starter. However, they may bring in competition if he struggles.
Placeholders for Someone More Exciting
Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland Browns)
Gabriel has been serviceable but not franchise-caliber. The Browns, with two first-round picks, are likely to draft a quarterback in 2026, potentially ending Gabriel's starting role.
Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints)
Shough's performance has been mixed, and the Saints may draft another quarterback in 2026. His guaranteed contract ensures his roster spot, but his starting role is uncertain.
Thought-Provoking Questions
- Are teams prioritizing short-term success over long-term quarterback development?
- How will the financial constraints of large contracts impact roster flexibility?
- Can young quarterbacks like McCarthy and Penix overcome early struggles to become franchise leaders?
The 2026 offseason will be a defining moment for many NFL teams, with quarterback decisions shaping their futures. As fans and analysts, we must ask: Are these moves bold steps forward or risky gambles?
